The rapid rise in the price of sponge titanium from 2018 to the present to June and July 2019 is really a bit like looking for "cheese." Sponge titanium enterprises "singing, listening, singing conservative, singing and falling hate", this is the current price behind the expression. Since this year, the wave of information on the price of sponge titanium in the media is also a wave of waves higher than a wave, North and South echo this wave! Today, let's analyze the price of sponge titanium. Whose cheese has been pried?
A simple fable, "Who Moved My Cheese," talks about the four little people looking for cheese in the maze, their gain and loss, their sharpness and dullness, their optimism and depression, their search and confusion, They are full of life's profound truths about change. In fact, it doesn't matter who moves the cheese. What does it matter if you lose the cheese?
Looking back at the decline in the price of sponge titanium for more than a decade, there are two main reasons: one is the serious excess capacity, and the other is the global financial crisis in 2008. However, overcapacity and the financial crisis did not hinder the rapid development of the titanium industry in China. From 2008 to 2018, the average annual production usage of sponge titanium fluctuated from 6.5 to 75,000 tons, which was 32 to 37 times that of 2000. This is in addition to the expansion of production capacity of cavernous titanium manufacturers over the years, which is now far more than 75,000 tons. Therefore, for more than a decade, on the one hand, the production of sponge titanium has grown steadily, and the development of the titanium industry has been promising; On the other hand, the price of sponge titanium continued to fall in the fluctuation of the price of raw materials such as titanium tetrachloride and magnesium metal upstream and the fluctuation of the number of sponge titanium plants. It was not until the beginning of 2018 that the price of sponge titanium began to recover, but it continued to rise this year. The momentum is beyond everyone's imagination.
From 2008 to 2017, the expansion and reproduction of sponge titanium price fluctuations led to some enterprises that could not withstand the rolling, opening and stopping, and finally some companies completely shut down, some companies sold equipment, and some companies were idle. Rusty. In the production of sponge titanium enterprises are also a few happy a few sorrow, by the strength and enterprise comprehensive bear hard to support the day. This phenomenon is related to the excessive production capacity of too many manufacturers launched during the period of sponge titanium boom from 2005 to 2007, and the market has "eliminated" many sponge titanium companies that can not be supported by the superior and inferior system assessment mechanism.
Since 2018, sponge titanium has been rising all the way, and it is a bit "I am the owner of my site, and the price increase is the number of banknotes." In summary, the main reasons for supporting the price increase are: First, the price increase of titanium tetrachloride and other raw materials is promoted; Second, there is a rigid increase in downstream demand, such as the increase in demand for "three airlines"(aerospace, aviation, navigation); Third, the demand of titanium civilian life products increases; Fourth, the growth of military titanium; Fifth, China's manufacturing industry has rapidly increased to support the growth of titanium demand. According to the author's recent review of the relevant data, the manufacturing industry promotion is conducive to the development of titanium. Look at the U.S., Japan, and Russia, which used to have stronger manufacturing than China, to see the technology behind their titanium growth. Today's surge in Chinese manufacturing has supported rigid demand for titanium, and lower prices for titanium metal materials have helped promote the use of titanium products. In addition to greater awareness of titanium, the promotion of titanium, and the use of fields and people are growing.
Among the above several price increase factors, the price increase of sponge titanium promoted by the price increase of raw materials, the price increase of this sponge titanium enterprise is not profitable, and the price increase was partially taken away by titanium tetrachloride enterprises. And a few other rigid demand to stimulate price increases, sponge titanium companies profitable, this year sponge titanium companies are making money. For more than a decade, sponge titanium companies have controlled costs in the "suffering" of the downward price, and the cost-effectiveness has been highlighted. So, 2019 sponge titanium enterprise makes good money, the face is already radiant.
Although since 2018, the "three airlines", civilian, military, and manufacturing industries have increased their rigid demand for titanium, the annual demand will not increase significantly. Demand for titanium in the next few years has risen steadily from year to year, which is the key to supporting the stability of sponge titanium prices above 75,000 yuan per ton. In the future, after 2020, whether the price of sponge Titanium is stable at 80,000 yuan, or whether it is raised by 85,000 yuan or even tentative quotation of 90,000 yuan, everything depends on the following four aspects: First, whether titanium tetrachloride will increase in price? The second is whether the demand for sponge titanium market will quickly exceed 90,000 tons or even 100,000 tons? Third, titanium processing enterprises balance the pros and cons of whether the import of foreign sponge titanium will increase? Fourth, whether the National reserve of sponge titanium will come out to calm the market.
Whatever the reason, domestic sponge titanium production capacity is still there. The fact that there is excess capacity(only not produced at full capacity), whether it is in production, waiting for production, new production, everyone wants to pry this cheese!
Now, who's cheese has been pried by the price of sponge titanium?
The first is that sponge titanium companies who want to pry this cheese, who want to make a profit in this round of market to become strong, each other's full load operation has begun to secretly compete.
"The surface price increase is one, and the secret game is on its own." Remember ten years ago, the price of sponge titanium fell from about 250,000 yuan to 100,000 yuan "altar". Domestic sponge titanium companies gathered in Zunyi to hold the "Zunyi Conference" unified price. As a result, the end of the meeting was "the great difficulty to fly each other.". Today's spongy titanium companies offer a fantastic price, and the execution price is lower than the price. Everyone wants to touch other people's cheese and move other people's cheese to become stronger. The market is like a battlefield, who does not want to occupy a market share? Who does not want to make more money in this round to prevent the future?
The second is the cheese that pries downstream and downstream companies. The price increase of sponge titanium squeezed the cheese of the titanium processing company, and the profit space narrowed. Now downstream companies are increasing the utilization rate of titanium waste, and some have increased the proportion of titanium residue added during smelting. Whether this has an impact on quality, there will be answers in the future, and there will be digestion of the original inventory of titanium ingots. Faced with the price increase of sponge titanium, the downstream support will eventually choose to adjust or wait and see, which will inevitably move the downstream and downstream cheese. When the price of titanium plates, titanium tubes, and other titanium materials continued to rise sharply, titanium used to "replace" other materials will be slowly "replaced" by other materials. Once the process is out of tide, it is a sponge titanium company. Another shuffle. The old sponge titanium enterprises should have experienced the crazy price of sponge titanium more than a decade ago and the subsequent wave of shuffling experience. At the present stage, the number of sponge titanium enterprises in China is not only increasing, but the production equipment and technology of the old sponge titanium manufacturers have been improved. The production capacity of sponge titanium of a number of key enterprises has even doubled since 10 years ago, and the annual production capacity of 10,000 tons was one or two. At present, more than 20,000 tons have reached 56, and there are still 10,000 tons of sponge titanium plants that have not yet been put into production.
So whose cheese did the rapid rise in sponge titanium raise? Looking at the essence through the phenomenon, the price increase has lifted the cheese of the sponge titanium company itself, and it has also lifted the entire titanium industry chain and cross-border cooperation cheese, creating a "gold rush" stimulating atmosphere for expansion, reproduction, and new production. The next step is to open up a new "Battlefield."
The market is like a battlefield. After each charge, it will clean up the battlefield. In the future, even if the rigid demand for sponge titanium production exceeds 80,000 tons, 90,000 tons, and 100,000 tons, do not be glad that the era of "titanium good" money has come. Remember that sponge titanium production capacity is far more than 100,000 tons. In the next three or five years, the best and the worst will be eliminated. Wait for sponge titanium companies to regroup to produce several larger groups of companies to lead the pattern of sponge titanium market. Inevitable trend.
Whose cheese has the price of sponge titanium lifted! The strong man is strong, and the cheese is the competitor's cheese.